Reasons for hosting discussions on Climate Induced Conflicts Increase In Northeast India
Summary Points:
- Climate Change is projected to increase conflicts. In fact it is said that the Third World War will be fought over water. But desertification, rising sea waters due to global warming, shifts in climatic zones due to warming leading to changes in conditions suitable for growing traditional crops, are other reasons that will lead to conflicts.
- The Northeast is acknowledged as a World biodiversity hot spot, with its rich abundance of natural wealth. Many of the indigenous people depend on these for livelihoods.
- Impacts of climate change in Northeast India that have forced climate-induced migration
Rain feeds rivers, streams and springs (In the last 30 years or so all states in the region except Sikkim show a decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall). Changes in the varieties of rice cultivated in some regions because of changes in rainfall patterns. Overall diversity of rice varieties has come down. New pests and insects being witnessed in some places like Upper Siang in Arunachal Pradesh and Wokha in Nagaland. More sand than fertile silt now brought down by the rivers. Unpredictable flooding means no long-term planning. - Once people are forced to move away from areas where they lived, sometimes for generations, where will they go? It will lead to excess populations crowding cities that are already bursting from their seams. Crime and other negatives will increase. And this is not just within countries (for example Kolkata facing the influx of populations with the submergence of several flat lands that make up the Sunderbans) but across borders as well –Maldives going underwater poses for India a serious concern of where the climate refugee will go.
- Those displaced are today not given the tag of refugees, since the country they come from is not at war/or there is no known persecution as such. Displacement is forced by nature, not humans.
- Security agencies and the International Human Rights Commissions is taking cognizance of this, and are working on ways to circumvent conflicts arising from climate change.
- So, discussions to reflect on the issues. For example will the Human Rights Commission rephrase climatically displaced persons as refugees allowing them the benefits of a refugee? How can we find livelihoods for people in their areas of residence should climate change reduce their incomes due to climate change-related issues. Can areas where the displaced are likely to migrate be prepared to take in additional populations? Can we circumvent greater impacts of climate change with countries diplomatically solving likely problems? Can the younger generation be educated with climate literacy to understand that anthropogenic actions impact the climate.
Excerpts from studies – Conflict and Climate | UNFCCC
How does Climate Change increase conflict?‘As the climate crisis intensifies in the coming years and decades, more and more people will be forced to leave their homes, as a result of everything from desertification to rising sea levels. How will countries cope with this influx of refugees, from for example, Pacific islands which are submerged, and will the sharing of already scarce resources lead to conflict?’
How does climate change affect more vulnerable regions? ‘We are seeing across fragile regions increased food insecurity, urbanization (as small farm holdings no-longer remain viable following a sequence of droughts or disasters) and competition over resources – particularly water. When combined with other planetary crises such as land degradation and over exploitation of the environment, climate change can make an already fraught situation untenable. 90 per cent of the world’s refugees originate from countries that are already impacted by the climate emergency and/or have the least capacity to adapt to an increasingly hostile environment. The latter is particularly important; while climate change impacts every single square meter of this earth, it does not impact everyone equally. And unfortunately, it is those states who have often contributed the least to global emissions, who are very much at the forefront of feeling the impacts of the emergency.’
Are we likely to see the numbers displaced increase?‘According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, one displacement per second took place due to extreme weather events last year. What is particularly concerning is that – given what the science is telling us, and what we are seeing in terms of a lack of engagement in preparedness and adaptation, and populations are moving towards more precarious locations – this figure can only increase. The latest IPCC report affirms the strength of the evidence that climate and weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement across all regions.’
Climate Change and Security Risks -UNEP – Intelligence community says climate change effects will ‘exacerbate risks’ to national security – CBS News
Climate Change In Northeast India– Down to Earth
Should you consider adding West Bengal as well, then I can give more information. In fact spoke on this topic on behalf of CENERS-K. Here is that presentation