COVID-19 OR WUHAN VIRUS: AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAME THE DRAGON
By
Manish Sharma
“We should never fret for what is past, nor should we be anxious about the future; men of discernment deal only with the present moment.”
–Chanakya
Introduction
COVID-19 referred at times as the Wuhan virus afflicted the world in unprecedented ways with utter disregard to national boundaries, ethnicities, racial or economic distinction. As the picture gets clearer each passing day, an accidental or inadvertent leakage of the virus, referred by many as a bio weapon, from BSL 4 laboratory in Wuhan, has been cataclysmic not only for China but the entire human race. China is more at fault for the cover up operations post the leakage and, while imposing stricter curbs at domestic level, deliberately permitted international travel to continue. Its comments became a harsh denouncement towards countries trying to restrict influx from China. This evidently underscores its intentional measures to let other Nations too bear the brunt. The manner in which China has influenced Global institutions like WHO to delay declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic, and hence, allow it to spread to every nook and corner of the globe has drawn wide denunciation. The compromised global institutes of significance will bear deadlier consequences for the world order more so because of its subversion by hegemonic autocracy like China by use of subterfuge.
China, instead of humbly accepting its erroneous misadventure and being cooperative in global scrutiny has been fully engaged in cover up and chicanery to divert world’s attention by false accusations, façade of altruism by supply of poor quality medical equipment, flexing its muscles in South China Sea, Tibet and Taiwan as also threatening overtly all oppositions with dire consequences. These abrupt recourses at this difficult time may be a frantic attempt to divert attention of domestic public from the biggest catastrophe of recent history, being considered graver than World War II.
India too has been on the receiving end since emergence of incipient cases with foreign travel history. With approximately one fourth of the world’s population and concentrated mass much beyond China and most of the globe, the threats and challenges are even much wider and graver to India, than any other Nation. Poor healthcare infrastructure, lack of basic critical equipment like ventilators, hospital beds, mask etc and majority of population in low income or poverty-stricken category makes an absolute amalgam for a perfect storm. The much lauded nationwide lockdown and provision of food and shelter as largesse by many organisations and individuals have helped the nation to boost its healthcare capacities while keeping low contraction rates in initial stages, thereby, drastically reducing its death ratios. However, the massive hit to its economy is irrevocable and its consequences are unfathomable today. Even the prognosticated heavy death tolls in India’s case is a matter of deep concern. The bigger issue facing India is not of overcoming this conundrum but can it turn this challenge into an opportunity.
Transforming the Challenge into Opportunity
A myriad of challenges have been thrown up by the Wuhan virus, vexing all of us with unparalleled nuances in similarities of the past. By the same token, it has also opened the floodgates of innumerable opportunities. On deeper deliberation, one can crystal gaze into future and see the many possibilities dawning at distant horizon. India’s foreign policy since Independence has persistently been of liberalism, trying to project its benign nature, which has not resulted in much positive outcome. Rather, it has drawn harsher criticism of lacking realpolitik and much afar from realism, the much required keystone in geo-politics. It has also been perceived as meekness and lacking the taste for bold actions. The support for China’s UNSC membership and its claim over Tibet finally leading to 1962 debacle and emergence of two inimical neighbours amply highlights foreign policy failures. Although, some display of statesmanship was witnessed in 1971, the events of Kargil 1999, Parakram 2002 and acquiescence under Chinese pressure, reinforces India’s timid responses.
The current incumbents’ display of brinkmanship and impudence, India appears to be breaking off the shackles of yore, as is evident from surgical strike 2.0. India has also not buckled under Chinese pressure in numerous instances like in case of BRI and Rcep. These actions, although a marker of what can come later, may not be enough to counter China’s nefarious designs. Today’s global environment, brimming with anti-Chinese sentiments, is ripe for corrective actions not only to accrue financial rewards by wooing corporates, disengaging from China, but to chart a holistic and new trajectory for itself. It can ultimately serve to counter China’s aggressive, intimidating and overbearing behaviour in order to tame the Dragon.
Shift from Tactical to Strategic Statesmanship
India has to make a paradigm shift in its strategy towards dealing with the northern neighbour. Till date, we have been responding passively to ever increasing Chinese assertiveness and that too at tactical level so as not to up the ante. It would be very naive to consider any Chinese activity as tactical, since it always has a veiled strategic dimension to every seemingly trifling action. Hence, it is time that we transform our stratagems and transcend our actions much beyond tactical victories. Some of the apposite and viable options to achieve our intended strategic goals can be as under:-
Strengthening the Quad. The national interest of all four members affected alike and coalescing like never before provides the most of opportune moment for India, US, Japan and Australia to come together and formally declare the alliance. At a modest scale, few meetings organised at ministerial or secretarial level in India or any crucial ASEAN country like Vietnam at this critical juncture may be enough for larger political signalling and display of strategic intent. The ‘Quad Plus’ comprising Quad countries alongwith South Korea, New Zealand and Vietnam and the first virtual meeting of these seven countries organised in Mar 20 regarding COVID-19 situation and countermeasures is a step in the right direction.
Rake Up Chinese UNSC Membership. China’s actions post the COVID-19 outbreak has been of cover-up, denial, subterfuge, intimidation, aggressiveness and completely shrouded in suspicion and dubious claims. the recent flooding as a result of opening the sluice gates of the upstream dams, is being spoken of as an effort to wash the sins of Wuhan. With the whole of world pent up with anti-Chinese emotions, we can optimally exploit the opportunity to make a strong case for dissolution of Chinese UNSC membership. The timing is most propitious with China’s amply apparent hegemonic and reprehensible intentions. There is a very high probability of a positive outcome by heavy voting in its favour. The same can further pave the way for India’s entry as a permanent member of UNSC. Chinese ruthless oppression of over 1 million Uighurs in captivity, brutal suppression of discontent in Hong Kong and imposition of National Security Law, with utter disregard to global opinion, can be suitable ploys bolstering the issue.
FONOPS in South China Sea. With ever-expanding Chinese claim lines and military operations in South China Sea, India can undertake FONOPS with Naval vessels along with other stakeholders like Japan, Australia, Vietnam and US. This, besides contesting China’s specious claims, will connote strategic signalling for China to constrain its offensive designs. Furthermore, it will aptly buttress India’s position as a leading regional power. The recent combined naval exercise in South China Sea sent a clear signal to China, to desist from expansionism.
Cosy Up to Taiwan. Taiwan has been a starkly sensitive issue for China’s CPC and can be utilised as a pressure point at strategic level. Merely supporting Taiwan’s membership for WHO or holding a secretarial level meet in Delhi may be enough to send the right strategic message across Himalayas and make a thud in Beijing. Signing of trade and commerce deals with Taiwan especially in technological domain can also foster our intended prospects against Beijing.
Government in Exile and Dalai Lama. Another important issue closer to Chinese CPC is the issue of Dalai Lama and Tibetan Government in Exile. An overt visit by a senior government official or a political leader to Dharamshala, or a meeting of important leader with Dalai Lama can be enough to signal strategic intent to the power centres in CPC. Enhanced pressure can be applied by arranging a meeting with any important foreign leader during his official visit to the nation. A good step has been taken by USA in funding the Government in exile with USD One Million.
Domination in Indian Ocean Region (IOR). China has been making frequent forays into Indian Ocean and ever increasing its presence both in quantum of naval vessels and acquisition of bases. India due to its sheer geographical advantage can exhibit its intent by dominating IOR by driving out Chinese submarine / ships and developing enhanced Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) over IOR, especially between Malacca Straits and Horn of Africa. India can also form part of multinational Combined Task Forces (CTF) deployed in IOR for anti-piracy operations and embolden its presence as well as intent.
Develop Andaman & Nicobar Islands as Important Military Base. Correctly referred to as an unsinkable aircraft carrier dominating most consequential shipping lanes of Malacca Straits, Andaman & Nicobar Islands need to be developed as a major military Base with dedicated assets. This may entail upliftment of airfield infrastructure, resource allocation mainly in terms of maritime and fighter aircraft, submarines, warships, radars, communication infrastructure etc and development of intervention capacities like missile batteries. This may also display clear intent of reciprocal action in case any misadventure by Northern adversary. Since China respects strength, the perceptible outcome at strategic level may be self-evident.
Absorb Manufacturing Companies Shifting from China. More than thousand companies have expressed desire to shift their base from China as an aftermath of COVID-19 outbreak, thereby, offering most apt opportunity to lure them. However, in order to create lucrative conditions, we must carry out urgent reforms both in labour laws and regulatory mechanism to obviate bureaucratic hurdles or red-tapism. Unless we promptly encash the extant opportunity, it may be lost forever.
Support Voices of Dissent. There have been a global furore over hundreds of thousands of death caused by the Wuhan virus. Many aggrieved parties have sought copious compensations from Beijing by filing lawsuits in various courts in different countries. India should also voice its concerns and join the global consortiums for making China responsible for the irresponsible release of bio weapon. It should foster the demand for trillions of dollars China owes to humanity. The whole world must unite to coerce China to make the obligatory reparations for the most horrendous global crisis.
Revisit Nuclear Policy. Recently, there have been consistent debates and discussions over India’s nuclear policy and a need for review in the contemporary milieu. India can revisit its stated nuclear policy to make suitable inclusion for defensive employment in case of a collusive dual front threat. This may relieve enormous strain on state exchequer by right sizing and force optimisation and allaying the need to maintain readily deployable forces for a two front scenario. Furthermore, the copious savings envisaged on revenue expenditure can then be channelised to meet the lingering modernisation requirements of the military, a dire necessity for credible dissuasive posture.
Conclusion
The whole world today faces an unmatched global crises engendered by laboratory developed Wuhan virus with its potency and contagiousness. Though, the race for a vaccine or cure is already on, the final hope is still not in the visible horizon. Humankind has been put under intense lockdown, all across the globe since presently prevention is the only cure. Many global powers and economic behemoths have crumbled under the burgeoning healthcare crises and weight of amassed coffins. While the world is barely managing to remain afloat, China has ramped up its efforts in multiple domains to afflict the world order with nasty intent. Besides grossly under-reporting its casualties, it has been non-cooperative on joint probes, over assertive in SCS, aggressive over Hong Kong & Taiwan, buying shares in influential corporates worldwide, and building up in Tibet to browbeat India.
China today is economically and militarily well poised to expand its wings both in range and influence. While the world gets trampled under the ‘Wuhan Virus’, China is busy flexing muscles and threatening the world like never before. Looking away or coyness is not an option as it will only project diffidence, a much despised virtue in Chinese’s dictionary. Unless the most influential nations coalesce swiftly to act in unison to stymie the ever growing aggressive and intimidating dragon, the emerging ‘Great Game’ may be lost forever. It may be the most opportune moment for India to break its shackles and leap forward to beat the dragon in its own game. The core requirement is to think big and anew more so in strategic domain, as every Chinese agenda has a shrouded strategic intent. India must swiftly calibrate and firm in its options and decisions to evolve an all encompassing stratagem to checkmate the dragon.
“The king shall lose no time when the opportunity waited for arrives.”
–Chanakya
Manish Sharma is an alumnus of the National Defence Academy and Command & General Staff College, USA. The officer has held varied instructional, staff and command appointments. He commanded his Regiment in Northern and Western Sectors and is a graduate of Long Gunnery Staff Course and the Higher Command Course.