CENTRE FOR EASTERN AND NORTH EASTERN RESEARCH STUDIES – KOLKATA (CENERS – K)
CONCEPT NOTE – SEMINAR TO BE HELD ON 25 MAY 2024 AT 0930 HOURS ON
INDIA’S STRATEGY HANDLING INDO CHINA RELATIONS& THE WAY FORWARD
“Research Centre for East and North East Regional Studies – Kolkata (CENERS –K)”, a Kolkata based Think Tank consisting of Senior Retired Army, Navy and Airforce, IAS, IPS, IFS Officers, Academics, Industrialists, Social Workers will conduct a Hybrid Seminar (Part webinar/part seminar) on the above subject on 25 May 2024 from 0930 AM to 1330 PM –at at the ICCR.
Indo – China relations became troubled after the annexation of Tibet by China in early 50s and further aggravated by the annexation of Aksai Chin in 1962. A number of meetings since then have not been able to resolve what was the erstwhile Indo- Tibet border. The Chinese did not adhere to the 1914 tripartite agreement at Shimla, and further exacerbated the border issue by insisting on their 1959 demand line, which not only does not adhere to the Macmohan/Johnson lines, but also shows large tracts of Indian territory from Ladakh to Lohit as Chinese territory. Tibet as a nation was lost to the World, with HH Dalai Lama taking refuge in India alongwith Tibetan Govt in exile.
India unfortunately agreed to Chinese Suzerainty over Tibet, supported ‘One China Policy’ by not recognizing Taiwan. China has not reciprocated India’s gestures and colloborated with Pakistan for the construction of CPEC through POK. China’s support to Pakistan and Pakistan based terror groups against India, its pro Jihadi stand in UNSC, clandestinely arming of Pakistan with strategic weapon technologies, stymie the growth of India as another ‘Pole’ in Asia, denial of India a berth on the UNSC, and the recent skirmishes in Doklam, Sikkim, Eastern Ladakh/Ladakh and Arunachal indicate protracted future riven with conflict.
China has browbeaten almost all neighbours, into border agreements, except for India. China’s adverse reaction to the West’s support to Taiwan/ the QUAD, its support to Russia in the Russo-Ukraine conflict, is perceived as a step to rapid ascendancy as the numero ‘UNO’ world power.
Whereas there is much scope for good relations between India & China, the latter has always considered India as a weaker and thus unequal power, little realising that if China is to become the leading power it has to maintain a workable relationship with India.
Chinese belligerence & aggressiveness in South China Sea, East China Sea, the LAC/Eastern LAC in Ladakh; UP/Tibet, HP/Tibet border sectors has put China in a confrontation with most neighbours. Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan, Arunachal are being forced to settle contested & illegitimate territorial claims of China. Disputes over the Chinese damming and thinking of diverting Ganga and Brahmaputra River waters in Tibet, have also complicated relations in spite of the surge in Sino Indian trade. China has also resorted to weaponising trade practices, alienating many nations. Chinese repeated claims to Arunachal Pradesh and her renaming places in the state are only aggravating matters further.
China is being accused of purposely spreading the COVID virus to gain world supremacy. There is unprecedented angst in the world against China’s culpability for destroying the world economy & livelihood of people.
China’s prestigious BRI project has not taken the trajectory it was supposed to, and many nations are either opting out or getting further indebted to China. On the other hand, India’s rapid infrastructure development in border areas/LAC, its abbrogation of Article 370, 35A and aggressive statements by her Home Minister to retake Aksai Chin and POK/NAs are considered to be threats to the Chinese CPEC, Highway 219 to Singkiang and Chinese economic interests in the region are being perceived as reasons for Chinese premptive actions.
The above issues have been further compounded by a perception that India is joining hands with the US, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Philipines and South East Asia in a perceived strategic alliance against China – this perception started with the Indo – US Nuclear deal and strategic partnership. The issue of India now Acting East, now being part of the ‘Quad’ to police the South China Sea and becoming a trade and rare earth resources and economic competitor, have added fuel to the fire and according to some Chinese commentators made it necessary to “Teach India a Lesson”
A full-fledged conflict is unlikely since it would be a ’lose- lose’ situation for both & China’s aspiration to be an world power will be jeopardised. A localised border conflict however cannot be ruled out. India has sent a message by confronting Chinese aggression & expansionism even if it results a conflict.US Intelligence has also recently predicted a Indo-China War.
As a long term strategy to deter China, India needs to build multi-domain capabilities. These would necessitate enhancement of CNP for strategic autonomy, building strong diplomatic & economic relations with powerful nations but prepare to fight alone, any direct assistance from other nations in a conflict would be a bonus & is not to be planned for. Indian Armed Forces also needs to modernize and change her strategy and war fighting modus operandi in light of the new patterns seen in the Russo – Ukraine, the Israeli Hamas, Balkans Wars and the changes in Chinese war fighting concepts
What therefore are India’s options to “Restore the Status Quo” and to prevent the blatant Chinese acts of aggression in all fields? These issues will be discussed in four sessions as follows as a hybrid seminar as follows.
Session 1 – The State of Indian and Chinese Economy in Outline
0930 -0940 – Lt Gen J R Mukherjee (Retd) – opening address
0940 –1000 – Prof Mohan Guruswamy – State of Chinese Economy
1000 – 1015 – Dr Suman Mukherjee – State of Indian economy and capability to take on the challenge
Session 2 – Foreign and Internal Domestic Policies
1015 -1035 – AmbKantha –Sino Indian Relations
1035 – 1055 -Professor C J Thomas, Tezpur University – views of NER on Indo China relations
1055 – 1115 – Professor Gurudas Das NIIT Silchar – India’s Act East Policy and relations with Myanmar/SEAsia
1115 – 1135 – Amb Shiv Mukherjee China’s relations with Nepal, Bhutan and effect on India
1135 – 1155 – Amb S Chakravarti – China’s relations with Bangladesh Indian Ocean countries – effect on India
1155 – 1215 – Tea Break
Session 3 – Security Aspects- of Indo – China relations
1215 – 1235 – Lt Gen J R Mukherjee (Retd) – major changes required in India’s Grand Strat/ Tac concepts
1235 – 1250 – Maj Gen Arun Roye (Retd) – security responses
1250 – 1305 – Brig N Mukherjee – Changes required in treaties and talks with China
1305 – 1320 -Retd Naval Cmdre to be coopted virtually –Defence of Indian Ocean
1320 – 1335Maj Gen P K Mullick (Retd) – AI, Mosaic, Cyber, Electronic, Info Warfare Aspects, use of AI
1335 – 1400 – ACM Arup Raha (Retd) – Air and space aspects of security and Valedictory Address
1400 – Lunch
All CENERS – K Members: serving officers from DMA, Army, Air, Naval Headquarters, Headquarters Eastern Command, Eastern Naval and Air Commands as nominated by them; Bureaucrats from MOD, MEA & MHA, selected – retd offrs Part 2 and 3 are invited.