India–Russia Energy Cooperation: Strategic Stability and Geopolitical Realignmentsin the 21st Century - CENERS-K

Col (Dr) Shantonu Roy

Abstract :

The strategic and geopolitical cooperation between India and Russia has undergone drastic changes in the present scenario of the unipolar world, with China and Russia striving to be the other poles other than the USA. India and Russia also are striving to have regional partnership to stand up against the present world powers and their collaboration comes up against new doldrums. This friendship isrooted in history with mutual interests. This must alignwith geopolitical changes, such as the rise of China and fluid dynamics in global security. Chances created for deeper economic integration, technology exchange, and joint geopolitical strategies provide better potential gains. Balancing national interests and calling out to global pressures will require both countries to innovate and reinforce their strategic cooperation in the face of emerging global uncertainties. Now, after the tariff arm twisting by Trump with Russia, India and China, there is an emergence of a new Asian Triad to downplay the unipolar world created by the US. The essence of today’s world geopolitics is a creation of a multipolar world which will give the dollar a run for its worth.

In conclusion, the India-Russia strategic partnership is at a critical juncture, requiring adaptive strategies and innovative approaches to thrive in the new global order. While the partnership faces considerable challenges from shifting global dynamics, it also has the potential to evolve and strengthen through focused collaboration .Navigating these complexities effectively will determine the future trajectory of this enduring yet dynamic relationship.

Keywords:Energy Cooperation, Indo Russia, Trade, Geopolitics, New Global Order, Russia China, Tariff, Oil, Deficit

Introduction

The strategic and geopolitical bon-homie between India and Russia has seen sea changes in the present arena of the unipolar world, with China and Russia trying to be the other poles other than the USA. India and Russia also are trying to have regional cooperation¹ to garner support for each other against the present world powers and their partnership comes up against new doldrums. This friendshipgoes deep into history with mutual requirements and needs. Thishas to alignwiththe geopolitical changes, like the stellar progress of China and the fluid dynamics of the global security postures. Chances created for deeper and constant economic integration, technology exchanges, and joint geopolitical strategies provide better potential gains for cementing ties for progressive growth of all concerned. Balancing national interests, requirements and calling out to global pressures will need both countries to innovate and reinforce their strategic cooperation²alongwith varied postures and alliances in the face of emerging global uncertainties, with the constant tariffs and sanctions by America to arm twist. The Russia –Ukraine war has also been a grave bone of criticism and holds a cloudy sky ovr the Indo – Russia relations.

Historical Foundation of Strategic Relations

India and Russia have a good record of strategic involvements and cooperation to assist each other, which have come forth significantly since India’s independence. The basis of this relationship was founded during the Cold War era, when Indiatook to a policy of non-alignment but had alignments towards the Soviet Union for economic and military support. The Soviet Union’s assistance towardsIndia during critical moments, such as the Indo-Pak War of 1971, forged this relationship into signing of the Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation of 1971. The arrival of the Soviet fleet stalled the move of the Seventh Fleet in the Bay of Bengal and India could get a decisive victory over Pakistan.

The historical roots of India-Russia alliance is to be originating back from the pre-independence era, with initial contacts formed during the Soviet period. After independence, Indiawanted to become a sovereign nation with a vibrant foreign policy. But, geopolitical ups and downs and

Indian Ministry of External Affairs (2023), Joint Statement on the Strengthening of India-Russia Strategic Partnership, Retrieved from https://mea.gov.in
Bose, Sumantra (2023), “India and Russia: From the Soviet Era to the Present”, Asian Survey, .

similar interests got India closer to the Soviet Union, not to talk about USA favouring Pakistan at that point of time over India, The Soviet Union gave substantial military, economic, and technological assistance to India, assisting it to build a strong defenceand industrial base which has seen us rise exponentially into a force to reckon.

During the Cold War, the Indo-Soviet alliance was highlighted by mutual trust and cooperation. The Soviet Union becameIndia’s largest defence partner³, giving it advanced weaponry and technology like the fighter planes, ships and tanks. Majority of our military hardware is Russian till date and we have found these to be effective in all our conflicts with our adversaries. This partnership was not merely skin deep but had depth as it was giving out a common vision of a multipolar world and mutual support to each other in international arenas. The Soviet Union constantlyhelped us during the nascent days of growth on major issues, including its stance on Kashmir and its opposition to apartheid in South Africa including constantly backing us for our seat in the UN General Assembly.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 was a flash point in India-Russia alliance. Despite these initial hitches and the changing global dynamics, both nations kept and sustainedwhile strengthening our strategic relation. The Russian Federation, as the subsequent state to the Soviet Union, constantly considered India to be a key ally in Asia⁴. The declaration of strategic partnership in 2000 and the elevation of this relationship to a “special and privileged strategic partnership” in 2010 reflected the depth and resilience of India-Russia ties.

Throughout the 21st century, Indiaand Russiakeptcooperating in various sectors, including defence, nuclear energy, space, and technology. The annual India-Russia forums and constantmulti-level exchanges have assisted in solidifying this partnership. Both countries have also assisted in multilateral forums such as BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO),

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Russian Federation (2022), Statement on the Strategic Partnership with India.
Brookings India (2021), India-Russia Relations in the 2020s: A Strategic Balancing Act

and the United Nations, calling out for a multipolar world dynamics and try out for reformations of various global governance structures.

The foundation of India-Russia partnership⁵is founded on the basis of trust, mutual respect, and

partnerships. Inspite of global geopolitical dynamics, this relation has stayed robust and continues to flourish, adapting to the new challenges and opportunities in the changing new world order. Presently, energy or oil is the bone of contention with US as India still stands firm with Russia by purchasing its oil to keep its economic condition stable. In turn, Russia may bail out India in its find for a fifth generation fighter aircraft as this is a dire requirement in today’s scenario with Pakistan. India has not marked out the SU 57 from its list of probables.

Energy Security

Energy security is another critical area where India and Russia are enhancing their strategic partnership. Russia, with its vast reserves of oil and natural gasplaying a crucial role in keeping upto India’s expanding energy requirements.Here, it is impertinent to mention that the world and European nations also need this gas and oil to sustain to their energy requirements. Long-term agreements for the supply of the crude oil and natural gas, tied up with investments in all kinds of sectors, will create astable energy supply for India. Also, cooperation in the field of renewable energy, particularly in solar and wind energy, can be mutually helpful. Collaborated ventures in nuclear energy, building on the success of the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant⁶, can further bolster energy ties. Such partnerships not onlybuild up towards to energy security but also gives way to technological exchange and capacity building because energy for everyone is key factor for a growing industrial base.

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Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2023), India and Russia: Navigating New Geopolitical Challenges. Retrieved from https://carnegieendowment.org
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2023), India-Russia Strategic Partnership: Charting a Course for the Future, Carnegie Report.

Cooperation in the Energy sector

In 2023, Russia was the oil supplier with a maximum gallons to India with a 40% stake.The energy sector is an area of importance in the Indian–Russian coalition. In 2001, ONGC-Videsh had a 20% stake in the Sakhalin-I oil and gas project in the Russian Federation. There aws an investment of about US$1.7 billion in the venture. Gazprom, a Russian company, and Gas Authority of India have partneredtogether in a joint development of a block in the Bay of Bengal. Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project with two units of 1000 MW each is a shining enterprise of the Indian–Russian nuclear energy cooperation. Russia and India have both expressed interest in the growing cooperation in the ever fluid energy sector.

In 2012 Gazprom Group and India’s GAIL got together to LNG shipments to India of 2.5 million tons a year for a period of 20 years. LNG shipments for this agreementwere deliveredfixed between 2017 and 2021. Indian oil companies have invested in Russia’s oil sector⁷, a clear example is ONGC-Videsh which has invested over $8 billion with major stakes in oil fields such as Sakhalin-1. In a joint statement releasedgiven by both governments they stated, “It is expected that Indian companies will strongly participate in projects related to new oil and gas fields in the territory of the Russian Federation. The sides will study the possibilities of building a hydrocarbon pipeline system, connecting the Russian Federation with India.”

In the ensuingwar between Russia and Ukraine⁸, India broughtdiscounted Russian oil and Russia became India’s second biggest supplier of oil in May, pushing Saudi Arabia into third place but behind Iraq which remains at first place. The data analysis is thatRussian oilis 18% of India’s crude imports. Indian energy reliance on Russia is increasing, as imports of Russian liquid gas, crude oil and coal became three times reaching to almost US$5 billion in the first half

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Chandran, Suba (2022), “India-Russia Ties in the Age of Indo-Pacific: Reassessing Strategic Priorities”, Strategic Analysis, 46(3): 398-412.
Chatterjee, Arindam (2024), “India-Russia Strategic Partnership: Navigating Challenges in the 21st Century”, International Affairs, 99(2): 221-234.

of 2022. After January 2023, Russia has become India’s topmost oil supplier, replacing Iraq. India’s oil imports from Russia went to fifth straight month in November, accounting for 23% of India’s overall import of 4 million bpd oil. This was 4% higher than imports from Russia in October.

Russia has dealt to create more than 20 nuclear reactors in the coming 20 years. Putin stated in an interview, “It contains plans to build over 20 nuclear power units in India, as well as cooperation in building Russia-designed nuclear power stations in third countries, in the joint extraction of natural uranium, production of nuclear fuel and waste elimination.”

In June 2025, most of the U.S. senators gave support for secondary sanctions against Russia that would impose 500% tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil, natural gas, uranium and other exports. India is one of the main purchaser of Russian energy and seemingly will stay that way. Now, there seems to be an Asian Triad of India – Russia – China coming up to stand up against Trump’s maverick ways of arm twisting and isolating US in trade and other sectors. This has caused Trump to soften his stand and also has tried considering the tariffs and sanctions.

Bilateral Economics

Bilateral trade of the two countriesare revolving around themajor value chain sectors. The sectorstowards different fields as machines, aerospace, electronics,automobile,chemicals, commercialshipping,pharmaceuticals,precious stones, fertilizers, apparels, industrialmetals, coal, petroleumproducts, high-end tea and coffee products⁹.

Bilateral trade in 2002 wasstaked at $1.5 billion and was hiked up bymore thanseven times to $11 billion in 2012 in just five months after 2022 impact, bilateral trade between Russia and India reached a record growth of $18.229 billion. Just for records and comparison, last year this figure went to $13.124 billion, and the year before that – $8.141 billion during pandemic. Presently, Russia is India’s seventh largest trading partner, coming up to this place from the 25th

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Dixit, J. N. (2020), India-Russia Relations: Prospects and Challenges in the 21st Century, Rupa Publications.

position last year. Russia’s share in India’s total trade volume went upto 3.54% in comparision to 1.27% in 2021–2022, and with this growing trend, both governments are creating a bilateral money target of over $30 billion by 2025 which they are achieving with cooperation.Now, after the tariff arm twisting by Trump with Russia, India and China, there is an emergence of a new Asian Triad to downplay the unipolar world created by the US. The essence of today’s world geopolitics is a creation of a multipolar world which will give the dollar a run for its worth.

The India Russia China Triad

The present state of India as one of the fastest growing economies has got a slight jolt with the 50% tariff hike by USA. Trump is ready to damage ties with India because of its closeness to Russia and also his personal business agenda in Pakistan dealing with rare earth minerals in Balochistan and cryptos. Also, it has been proved in the past during the Cold War and 1971 that USA will side with Pakistan. USA has never been vocal about Kashmir either or has supported India about its seat in the UN General Assembly, so expecting any major sidings with India in the future is also not going to happen. With Trump in chair and his ambitions for the Nobel Peace Prize will only keep dealineating us from them. Though, US will keep some defence ties in place to keep the QUAD alive, because it serves their purpose to keep the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean open for trade routes which are passing through it.

In this situation, the next best option is to garner up a Triad within the Asian countries to improve trade. China is also growing at a fast rate and has given US a run for its dollar and also has been a victim of the trade war with tariffs being pushed upto 125 to 150 %, but then there has been a lull in the tariff battle with them. This is because, though US is China’s major market with 20% imports from them but China can deviate their markets to their other markets in other countries. But, here USA will have problems because their manufacturing agencies will not be able to fulfill the requirements at the cost at which China gives the products. This will cause a product deficit in the US. Also, the US is scared of the currency which the BRICS¹⁰ want to initiate, as this will make the dollar lose its sheen. These economies of the BRICS are large

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Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) (2022), The India-Russia Strategic Partnership: Trends and Prospects, IDSA Report.

economies with which India can establish trade ties to offset the US tariff rise. Out of these BRICS countries, Asia has China and Russia. Though, Russia is presently on alow ebb due to the ongoing Ukraine war, but yet it is a power to reckon. Here, it is impertinent to mention that Europeans were purchasing Russian oil, but due to the war and sanctions on Russian oil being purchased by these countries was put to a stop. Now, Saudi Arabia would have sold their oil at higher rates but for India which purchased Russian oil and sold to these countries, thus bailing out Russia and also giving the European countries oil at cheaper rates than Saudi Arabia. So it is a win – win situation for all except US and Saudi Arabia which the US did not like.

The recently concluded SCO Summit at China brought out a new global dynamics with the Russia – China – India partnership, though there are challenges. This has been the visit of an Indian Prime Minister in the last seven years and the meeting on the sidelines with the Chinese Premier has been an icing on the cake. China has openly supported India in this tariff war with US. The leaders Xi and Modihave decided together to expand trade and investment ties to bolster global commerce, and tied up to deepen bilateral ties to combat the challenges in the global dynamics. This is alongwith the backdrop of tariff warfare that Asia’s two largest economies face from the US. Then, there was this visit by the Chinese Foreign Minister to India where many tie-ups were discussed, showing a positive upsurge. The only dark shadow is that; can the Chinese be trusted. Then, we have their open support for Pakistan and our land disputes which have reached no logical conclusion.And, we are against their Belt Road Initiative and our IMEEEC (India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor) is their equivalent. If there are dynamics where China opens its market, to some extent, it can help reduce the deficit. The markets of Russia and China are very important to target upon. If the US tariffs cause a 15–25% dent, getting the pressure down by strengthening ties with China and Russia would be critical.

Conclusion

The India-Russia strategic cooperation, laid forward by ages of cooperation and common interests, faces a changing and growing global dynamics that presents both challenges and opportunities. As the world goes on to a multipolar order with emerging world power centres, the traditional pillars of the India -Russia partnership are being tested and redefined. Theever dynamicgeopolitical arena, highlighted by rising tensions in various aspects and the reorientation of global partnerships. The emergence of the new Asian Triad also gives the India – Russia relation a new look in the global arena.Consequently, the relationship holds significant potential. Both countries have a common interest in countering terrorism, ensuring regional stability, and fostering economic growth. The confluence of their strategic objectives offers a base for enhanced cooperation in fields such as defence, energy, and technology. By asserting their respective strengths, India and Russia can address common challenges and gain on emerging opportunities, such as advancements in energy technology and regional security collaborations.

Col (Dr) Shantonu Roy, is an INDIAN ARMY VETERAN retired after serving for 34 years in the Corps of Electronic and Mechanical Engineering. He fought the KARGIL WAR and also served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka. He has served in various appointments during his service. Also, he has held instructional tenures in various institutions of education. He is a technocrat having acquired a M.Tech and then a MBA in Human Resources, further enhancing his educational qualification by doing a PhD in Defence and Strategic Studies. Since then, he has been presenting papers on International Relations in various universities and TV channels on invitation. Post retirement, he also has a NGO to educate the underprivileged children and a You Tube channel on Life Skills and International Relations. His e-com site is spreading awareness about handicrafts of West Bengal.

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