WHY NATIONS BEHAVE THE WAY THEY DO !!

WHY NATIONS BEHAVE THE WAY THEY DO !!

1. the present world situation is one of economic coercion, distrust in alliances, lopsided balance of power, and no clarity of future conflicts. the rule based structures, so far handled by two poles, came under tremsndous strain when a third pole displaced the second pole. in other so far well accepted alliances, traditional partners are looking the other way, forcing the economically and militarily weak to look elsewhere for sustenance.Today EU is wallowing in self-pity, in total shambles, and depends on NATO AND us , CALLED BID DADDY BY THE SECY GENERAL OF NATO, for protection.AS CHAMBERAIN SAID IN LATE NENETEENTH CENTURY “We live in interesting times”. TODAY’S TALK IS BASICALLY TO DO WITH GEOPOLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. the simple answer to the heading is :-
2. political ideology andsystemic issues.
3. territorial integrity and sovereignty,
5. economic well being and/or distress.
6. military power and /or lack of it.
7. whims and fancy

historical background

2. For my talk today I am going to draw upon a conference that our organisation held recently on the world situation. Therein we had many eminent speakers who have shaped India.
3. By way of Introduction : The Peace of Westphalia in mid Seventeenth Century, sanctified the construct of a nation state, in conjunction with the concept of raison d’etat. A concept that provided Primacy of National Interest over all else.
4. Thence came the doctrine of balance of power, the alliance system conceptualized by Hugo Grotius.This was first put into practice by William of Orange, later, King William III of England, in early Eighteenth century,which laid the foundational template of international relations,that is valid even today, three centuries later. 5. It was followed by the concept of Vienna in early nineteenth Cenrury, when the three hypotheses were tested. The concept of Raison De Etat WAS FURTHER expanded upon by Cardinal Richelieu,in mid nineteenth Century. It ensured an uneasy peace for the next 99 years. when there was no general war, except the Crimean wars from 1854 to 1856, till the beginning of the First World War in 1914.      
5. However,In May 1892, in a memorandum to the Russian foreign minister, Nikolai Gryz, the adjutant general of the Russian army, Nikolai Obuchev, explained why the traditional method of determining cause of war had been overtaken by modern technology. What mattered most now was who mobilized first, and not who fired the first shot. The undertaking of mobilization cannot be considered as a peaceful act. On the contrary, he opinedit represents the most decisive act of war.The rest is History commencing 28 Jun 1914. By 1918, this Armageddon had left 17 million people dead.
6. The Second World War was triggered by the imperatives of the alliance system, the balance of power. In 1938, German troops annexed Austria, and before occupying Sudentenland, a part of German-speaking Czechoslovakia.
7. However, when the Nazis marched into Poland on September 1st, 1939, Great Britain, according to the terms of the Anglo-Polish Pact, declared war on Germany on September 3rd, 1939. France followed suit, and the war dominoes were in full play. By the time it was all over in 1945, 85 million people were dead, and large parts of the world lay in ruins. The Russians had by then forced the hands of the west to go into a Nuclear mode, with doctrines like Mutual Assured Destruction Then followed the era of Cold War, the berlin wall, till the formal dissolution of the Soviet Union on the 26th of December, 1991.
8. In 1992, Francis Fukuyama wrote in National Interest Magazine that what we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period, of post-war history, but the end of history, as such. Essentially, what he stated was that the Western liberal and democratic model would be the default option of the global order in the years and the decades ahead.
9. in 1996, Samuel P. Huttington wrote The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order. Huntington argued that the epoch of ideology had reached an inflection point, and therefore humankind would regress into an age delineated by cultural conflict all over again.what he meant was that the ideology aspect took a back seat, and naturally so, with political parties and politicians changing their ideologies every so often.The hypothesis, – the primary axis of conflict would be along cultural trajectories. The potential for conflict and the genesis of actual conflict, would be due Cultural differences. He was careful in his book to state that he does not advocate the desirability of such conflicts. Both Fukuyama and Huntington were gazing into the crystal ball, trying to predict the ebb and flow of historical and Westphalian impulses.
10. at This stagewe need to understandConflict and other words associated with it.If the rules of international conflict are not pursued, then international order is in grave danger. Any Conflict has to have five stages, from the beginning to end :-
11. – avoid – sidestep
12. – join battle- IDEOLOGICAL- ECONOMICAL- MILITARY
13. Stabilisation.reach a stalemate
14. Termination.- identify indicators
15. Resolution – try and reach a permanent solution
16. On September 11, 2001, semi-state actors put the only omnipresent pole power on notice, The Crystal Gazing of both Fukuyama and Huntington had failed! The invasion of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, on October 7, 2001, was not a clash of civilizations, but a tactical attempt to get even with the masterminds of 9-11, namely Osama bin Laden led Al-Qaeda.In fact, Afghanistan was the classical test case for Fukuyama’s thesis, courtesy the direct involvement of the U.S. for over 20 years. Neither was it a clash of civilizations. For if that had been the case, the United States would not have got into negotiations with the same Taliban it had ousted 20 years ago.
17. currently, This reasoning becomes especially relevant at a point in time when after the end of World War II, humankind is witness to a three-continent conflicts playing itself out concurrently.
18. Russia Ukraine – Feb 2022.
19. Azerbaijan- Armenia
20. Israel- Hamas

                         Hezbollah

                         Houthi

Lebanon

Iran

Syria

1. USA- Iran
2. India- _ Pakistan
3. Thailand- Cambodia

13.The unleashing of such tectonic forces, across West Asia, after staying buried since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1919is not civilisational. Neither was the invasion of Iraq a clash of civilizations.For if that had been the case, the Anglo-Saxon civilization would not have given up after spending $3 trillion and thousands  dead. THE cause behind the invasion of Iraq was TO CAPTURE THE ECONOMIC LARGESSE HEAPED ONTO THEM BY NATURE. FOR THIS THEY HAD to get rid of Saddam Hussein. It was again raison d’ etat at play. Similarly, the invasion of Libya in 2011, was under the rubric of right to protect R2P (AN EUPHEMISM FOR THE GRABBING OF OIL RESOURCES), THE IDEOLOGICAL AND SYSTEMIC ISSUES,  andnot a clash of civilizations by any stretch of imagination. It has not turned Libya into a democratic paradise.The impulse was to get rid of Colonel Gaddafi’s regime.

13. Likewise, after the collapse of communism in 1990s, China did not become democratic, nor is its ominous rise a civilizational struggle with other cultures.The rise of China over the past three to four decades has attained potentious overtones in large parts of the world, beyond the immediate Chinese neighbourhood, in North Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.It’s again purely driven by what China perceives as its national interest, the Middle Kingdom’s destined place in the natural order of things.
14. Therefore, the affairs of peoples and nations are still governed by two fundamental percepts, both dating back to the 17th century. The first, coined by Cardinal Richelieu, namely raison d’etat, and the second, the doctrine of balance of power, the alliance system conceptualized by Hugo Grotius and implemented by William of Orange, later King William III of England,

a word about the subcontinent.

1. We face a potential challenge in terms of a problem called Pakistan, a legacy of the partition, and now a rogue state for many decades on our western border. An aggressive China on the northern border, again the legacy of the conundrum between frontiers and borders dating back to the late 1940s. A fluid Bangladesh on the eastern border, and other states in the region that seek to hedge their bets between India and China, exercising their own version of the principle of balance of power.Theregion like rest of the world, today is marked by disorder, with shiftinghegemonies and disruptive technologies undermining stability:-
2. The omnipresent U.S, once a beacon of democracy, is now internally divided and globally unpredictable.
3. Europe faces a deepening crisis influenced by both internal issues and external powers like the U.S. and Russia.
4. West Asia on which pakistan depends for close support, is in turmoil, with Israel intensifying aggression in Palestine, syria,neutralied Iran, some say, ignoring international norms.
5. Syria’s leadership shift has unexpectedly improved U.S. position in the region, sidelining Russian and Chinese influence, which is being whittled away by Israel’s brecent bombing of syria.
6. Afghanistan remains unstable, and terrorism is resurgent; thailand and cambodia, once friends, with common dynastic oriented rulers are now enemies fighting it out for land; thuspeace in Asia is fragile.
7. Pakistan is a growing threat, plagued by internal strife and aggressive military leadership.
8. The recent Indo-Pak conflict reveals Pakistan’s intent to perpetuate hostility, making peace elusive.
9. Myanmar’s junta and political shifts in Bangladesh also pose future risks for India.
10. India-China tensions persist; it is here, that there needs to be safeguards against a nuclear conflict between the civilizational rivals.
11. Cyber warfare and AI are redefining modern conflict, as seen in the Ukraine-Russia war.
12. Future wars will be technology-driven, demanding India’s preparedness for autonomous warfare.
13. AS FOR OUR LEADERS, a quote from the Isha Upanishad, would be appropriate –“knowledge without wisdom may deepen global darkness”.
14. This seriously challenges India’s Monroe Doctrine in South Asia. What, then, is the way forward for India? It is to listen to the sage advice of Cardinal Richelieu and act in our own best interest, as we did during the recent Operation Sindoor, from the early hours of the 7th of May 2025 to the evening of 10th of May 2025.

CONCLUSION

17. we have entered a ‘reordering period’ where the US dominance is fading, and authoritarian impulses are likely to deepen, resulting in a fragmented global landscape.our broad agenda is how do we ensure that India continues to grow and the dream of becoming a developed nation is achieved without disruption, because that is how all sections of the society will grow. And as a country, we’ll be secure, we’ll be stable, and we’ll be able to offer good quality of life for every Indian.India’s strength lies in being a bulk producer as well a bulk consumer. WE NEED TO REMAIN focused on the trade and commerce sector, technological and human capital, current industrial conditions and investments.India stood neutral during times of war trying to safeguard its interests whether it was the Russian-Ukraine war or the Israel-Palestine Conflict. WARS, which was seen to be quite decisive at one point is no longer seen in the same way. the new India has arrived as India is now leveraging its demographic resolve and economy. if India diligently continues to pursue its dream to become a leading power nothing can UNhinge its goal even though regional challenges will continue to exist.
18. THE INTERIM ADMINISTRATION IN BD HAS terrorist connections, with Islamic organizations and student unions in Bangladesh. A free and fair Bangladesh Election is desirable for India. The problems centred on the Chittagong Hill Tracts and the influence of America in Bangladesh against China DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE REGION. The current context of South Asia BY USA TOO IS NOT A GOOD POINTER. Rare earth metals is the new gold which will run the world and some has already been found in Bangladesh which the US wants to exploit. military uprisings and military resistance have occurred in Myanmar since THEIR independence in 1948. there is a stalemate in the present crisis, with China betting on the JUNTA, that will lead to a continuation of conflict. the real issues are the devolution of power and the lack of good governance, with people blaming the refugees for the rise in crime. Thus, we have created a snake pit of petty conflicts that are prone to spill over India.
19. WITH CHINA. A complex interplay of cooperation, coordination, and contention DOES VITIATE THE RELATIONSHIP. the context of “complex interdependence” and “economic cooperation” as a way to peaceful co-existence among the nation-states HAS BEN A PROVEN SYSTEM IN THE PAST. Despite India- China cooperation talks in the recent BRICS /SCO SummitS over initiatives like Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, etc. China continues to extend its support to Pakistani terrorism. China wants to maintain its trade ties with India, as India is one of its top trading partners.