CONCEPT NOTE
“ PEACE AND STABILITY IN THE INDO-PACIFIC “
Humans as a race, have always yearned for peace, but divergent national interests have resulted in conflicts between nations. Peace invariably comes into focus when conflict is no more sustainable. Security, stability and economic viability is an essential prerequisite for attaining a state of peace and development in a region. The rise in power of a nation state leads to the sense of an insecurity of its neighbours or littorals. Conflicts arise when economic and military actions or, pursuits to enhance security by one or more nations impinge on others national interests. Consequently, it sows the seeds for quest for balance of power, as well as collective security which, then become lynch pins in the security calculus of that specific region.
The Indo-Pacific region, which is virtually a neighbour, is home to more than two fifth of the world’s population with China and India being the world’s two most populous nations in the world. The Indian Ocean Rim (IOR) extends to the Pacific Ocean and accounts for more than 70% of global trade and contains the three most strategic choke points in international energy trade, namely the Malacca Straits, the Gulf of Hormuz and Bab-el Mandeb. India’s 95% trade by volume or 75% by cost flows through the Indian Ocean. Goods worth US $5 trillion approximately flow annually through the South China Sea (SCS) of which, more than 25% belong to the United States of America. The Indo-Pacific region continues to weigh in the minds of policy makers and analysts of the world, especially the region in particular, as they endeavour to assess the array of competing situations of cooperation and conflict.
Barring a few, the entire region consists of developing nations where poverty is still a concern. Growth engines like China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and South Korea are making remarkable strides. On the other hand, in the East China Sea (ECS) a strong and effective leadership in a resurgent Japan strives to regain its economic and technological standing despite a demographic disadvantage. The littorals of SCS are engaged in a competition to garner natural resources more vigorously than ever before, as they are embroiled in overlapping and contesting claims. China’s unilaterally declared Nine Dash Line claims large chunks of EEZ of ASEAN Nations. This despite the Permanent Court Arbitration Tribunal (PCA), ruling against Chinese historical rights in SCS. This rule based order has been contested by China. The United States of America, is now sensing a more than palpable challenge from China in the Indo- Pacific region, which, could ignite a fire going out of control.
Recent actions of trade protectionism by the US has sparked off a trade war, detrimental to Sino-American relations, pushing the global economy to slow down. Domestic consumption being inadequate to keep its production power houses, China would be compelled to review its strategic alternatives. On the other hand, the US would seek alternate sources to import goods hitherto obtained from China. China is pushing into the EEZ of ASEAN Nations, with survey vessels and huge crane ships. The objectives are ominous. A cash rich China is pushing through its signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), to access more markets. Arguably, a debt overhang may cause internal strife as collateral damage among the host nations. Therefore, multiple challenges and, opportunities appear in the horizon for economies of the Indo-Pacific. As the major powers remain engaged in protecting their interests in the strategically important global commons, they concurrently endeavour to enhance their degree of influence among the littorals who, in turn seek capacity building, disruption-free trade and economic activities. A host of nuclear capable states exist in the Indo-Pacific, some acting with tacit support of a powerful neighbour. This is likely to remain an added dimension to the lexicon of security in the Indo-Pacific. Information-based Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) is said to diffuse and redistribute power, to the benefit of those that once may have been considered as lesser actors. Space and cyber warfare are relatively new frontiers and could be effectively used by adversaries for signaling a new format of conflict and, hence may alter the hierarchy of conflict. Terrorism, ethnic discord, religious and nationalistic fervour are on the rise and are new areas in the security paradigm of the Indo-Pacific. The contesting and overlapping claims in the ECS and SCS have the potential to erupt and snowball into a conflict situation in absence of rule-based conduct.
Energy security remains the Achilles heel for China, India and Japan and others who are significantly dependent on import of hydrocarbons? The US sanctions on Iran and the ensuing war of words is a serious concern and causing ripples in the region. How would it impact countries importing hydrocarbons from the Gulf of Hormuz? Divergent views on ban on import of hydrocarbons from Iran and similar US dictates in future may impinge on sovereignty and strategic autonomy of partners. Wouldsecurity considerations alone be enough for stitching alliances for peace and stability in the region?