Calcutta Dialogue
Comprehensive Report (1st Half)
The Calcutta Dialogue (India-PR China Relations The Way Forward) was held at The Lalit Great
Eastern, Kolkata on 13th March, 2020. As the world is facing crisis due to the spread of the
COVID-19 pandemic which has now reached Indian soil, the speakers made references about the
virus.
Inaugural Session by Brig. NS Mukherjee, Secretary, CENERS-K
Welcome speech: Brig NS. Mukherjee welcomed the Panelist, Speakers, Dignitaries and all the
guests in his introductory speech. CENERS-K in partnership with Indian Chamber of Commerce
presented the ‘Calcutta Dialogue’ on India- China relationship. The theme of this session would
essentially cover three areas Geopolitical, Economic and Cultural issues and the dialogue would
aim to recommend the way forward to further strengthen the relationship between China and
India.
Welcome address by Dr. Rajeev Singh (Director General, Indian Chamber of Commerce)
A Start off statement by the speaker “all the economies in the world are interconnected”. Some
event happens in some part of the world and it reaches several countries. When it comes to large
economy like China, where so many global economy has their leaves including India in terms of
trade, import, export and even people exchange. One need not say how important China is for
this region. How important the relationship is for the region. The scale of economy which China
enjoys makes it imperative for Indian business to engage with China. The speaker stated that
with the Calcutta Dialogue, he would like to explore the barriers and the new dimension now
being the COVID-19. He shared his assessment on the impact of virus on India’s trade. There are
almost 23–24 sectors represented by various bodies working in China. The production in China
has been down. It has been in the range of almost 60% on an average. But there is positive light
and he said that another 30-45 days China would move towards containment of virus and
normalcy would be restored. The production again may touch 80% of the stall capacity.
However, these are just the assessments and time will tell what would happen. India needs to
build the strategic opportunity. Lastly, the speaker spoke about the Wuhan Summit and
concluded that the relationship between India and China has taken a new dimension which has
been beneficial to both the sides.
After the welcome address Lamp lightning and Felicitation ceremony was held.
Objectives of the Calcutta Dialogue
General Shankar Roy Chowdhury (Patron, CENERS-K)
The speaker started his presentation by sharing his experiences on how the organization,
CENERS-K was founded.
He spoke briefly on how Pakistan is the factor in every discussion related to China and India.
China and India are cooperating but is also competing for the market share. The main objective
of the Calcutta Dialogue is to look forward to the relationships. Since both the nations are
competing against each other, it is also important ultimately whatever arrangements we have
with China have spillover effects in Indian economy also. India has been doing everything
necessary on their part to get market access in China.
Present status of India China Relationship- Ambassador Ashok K Kantha (Director, ICS)
The speaker started off with a question, How does one characterizes India China relations? With
the speaker’s own experience he stated it has been extremely complex, complicated relationship
full of contradictions and outstanding challenges yet a relationship which on the whole is moving
forward. The complication in the relationship has added another layer recently with COVID-19
pandemic, which will play out for some time with consequences and fall out which are still far
from clear. In spite of all the problems between India and China, we (India) has managed to put
in place a vibrant engagement with China, crossing across the domain not only bilaterally but
also multilaterally on global issues.
India has an unresolved boundary question with China and despite that we have managed to
ensure that our border areas are peaceful, notwithstanding occasional standoff situation. In fact
India China borders are far more placid compared to our border with Pakistan.
Regarding economy the fact remains that China is our leading partner in trade, we have growing
functional exchanges. India’s relationship with China is difficult yet it is full of possibilities and
opportunities and it is moving ahead in different areas. While looking back at the recent past, the
speaker stated that there have been three distinct phases in our engagement with China. India and
China have solved two expand areas of conversions. India joined Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank and it is the second largest equity holder there.
The Speaker expressed his grief over a turbulent phase between India and China in the years
2016-17. The differences between the two countries surfaced in a whole lot of issues ranging
from Nuclear Supplier Group to China Pakistan Economic Corridor. This period of turbulence
culminated in Doklam issue where we witnessed stridency on Chinese side.
In the year 2017, the meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on
the margins of big summit was held. This also resulted in two informal summits at Wuhan and
Mamallapuram. Wuhan Spirit and Chennai Connect has helped in bringing normalcy in the
relationship between the two countries. The strategic guidance has been given to the militaries to
maintain peace and guidance in the border areas. Some steps are taken by the Chinese to address
India’s concerns on the trade deficit.
According to the speaker the differences between India and China has the habit of resurfacing,
for instance recently on the Kashmir issue where the government of India took some important
decisions regarding Jammu and Kashmir. There are certain issues which remain unresolved and
these issues are further complicated by the fact that we have entered a period of Geopolitical
contestations. Big economic power such as USA is increasingly looking at China as a revisionist
power and strategic competitor. Trade dispute between the two countries is just a manifestation
of much larger strategic rivalry which is playing out in two countries. The speaker added that the
outbreak of COVID-19 will further intensify these differences. Sources of China US
contestations are structural and what we are seeing today may get settled but this is not limited to
just China and US. Perception about China is changing. At a wider scale, we are witnessing a
push back to certain behavior of China from many quarters and hence much will depend on how
China develops and chooses to use its power.
The speaker further explained that the trajectory or the phenomenal ascendance of China is far
from assured. The COVID-19 pandemic is a reminder of how a disruption event can be. Chinese
policies are going under significant recalibration and adjustments. The situation in China has
changed fundamentally and it is facing difficult challenges of simultaneously managing
economic slowdown on trade, technology and strategic defence.
Following these geopolitical shifts and China’s evolving trajectory, we are witnessing
adjustments of Chinese policy towards its neighbours like Japan, Korea, India and also towards
other powers like European Union. There is recent improvement in India China relations, partly
from the larger readjustment on the part of China as rivalry with the US emerges as the primary
challenge of China. China is prepared to show greater flexibility in other key relationships
without making substantive concession including India. India’s approach is also being shaped by
this change and rapidly changing geopolitical environment. The speaker opined that the need for
us is to calibrate our relations with China and the US and respond to shifting geopolitical
context.
According to the speaker, another aspect of the relationship between India and China which will
continue to have important bearing on future trajectory of our ties with China are “structural
challenges”. There are many challenges we have our differences ranging from borders to massive
trade deficit. The COVID-19 pandemic has also exposed the risk involved in excessive
dependency on China for imports of products from pharmaceuticals to electronics and other
basic essential items.
There is a growing competition: sharing periphery both land and maritime. We are faced with
assertive China and how to engage with China would be a major challenge in the years to come.
These challenges is made more intractable by the fact that there is a growing capability gap
between India and China where China’s economy is five times larger than that of India.
Another challenge arises from the divergent of geopolitical issues. Both the countries have
different perspectives regarding the future of Asia and the future of the World. China would
prefer a China centric Asia and eventually a China centric world whereas India’s preference
remains a more balanced Asia and a more balanced World a multi polar Asia and a multi polar
World. These basic contradictions in the Wolds view of the two countries will continue to
influence the relationship between these two countries. The question, how do we respond to
these strategic challenges posed by China? The speaker stated “our response can be summarized
in four words:- a) Engagement, b) Deterrence, c) Balancing, d) Capability.
Constructive engagement with China will remain the key plank of India China
relationship in the foreseeable future. India has to pursue a sophisticated mix of
relationship with China as India is also a source of opportunity for China.
Deterrence has to be asymmetrical. A mix of defensive and offensive capability
Given India’s capability gap with China, India should pursue the strategy of balance
while working with other like-minded countries including the USA, Japan,Vietnam and
so on.
As there is a huge capability gap between India and China which continues to grow
further, India has to try to narrow this gap for its interest. The Indian policy makers
should follow a variant of advises. Indian should avoid getting into adversarial mode and
confrontation. India should defend its vital interest without defining them in unrealistic
terms.
Lastly, the speaker concluded his presentation by stating that India has a complex relationship
with China which includes elements of engagement, cooperation, competition and rivalry. As
stated by the speaker we have our concerns and apprehensions regarding certain aspects of
Chinese behavior and seek deeper but more balanced engagement in the escalating strategic
rivalry between USA and China. India should seek engagement with China and should avoid
conflicts and confrontations.
Address by Chief Guest Dr. Mohan Guruswamy (Head Centre for Policy Alternatives).
Dr. Guruswamy presented an excellent power point presentation where he spoke about the
economy of both India and China backed by statistical data and graphs. His presentation gave
insights on the historical background of the economy of the world and that of India and China.
He stated that India-China story is heading towards a different kind of conclusions and unless we
wake up domestically, the story might get resolved with the huge gap between the two countries.
As far as India China economic history is concerned, economic decline began with the advent of
colonialism and the internal strife in India which was accompanied by the industrial revolution in
the West. Industrial revolution took them on a journey which left us far behind. The speaker
presented a graph where during the 1950s both India and China were at the bottom of the
economic graph. However, both India and China slowly made their way up. China specially
made a very fast climb while India is still lagging behind. The speaker further gave presentation
on the differences between the economies and investment between the two countries.
As opined by the speaker, In India we talk about how big our GDP is going to be, but we forget
about how wealthy are we going to be. As the speaker stated that Per capita GDP number mirrors
the changes in the power prosperity, cultural and scientific achievements. Per capita GDP is very
important because it tells you what kind of a country is that and what are the things which is
happening there. We (India) are far behind on per capita GDP. However, the speaker is positive
and says that we still have a long way to go. He has noted a mood of elation in the country. He
states that we have to be realistic in looking at the per capita figures.
There is this interesting phenomenon where he stated that the growth of the world began quiet
late. It began at around 1970s- 80s when President Nixon delinked the US dollars from gold.
Suddenly he realized that he could print a lot of money and with that he drove the World’s
growth in a different way.
Some examples the speaker used to explain the world economy: “Till the year 2000, India and
China were about the same economic level”. Chinese GDP crossed a trillion dollars in 1998 and
India followed 9 years later in the year 2007. Today China’s GDP is four and a half times bigger
than that of India. Here the speaker opined that if India continues to grow at this rate, we are 25
years behind China. China’s GDP is now 13 trillion and India is inching towards 2.9 trillions.
How China moves in the future would affect the developed economy enormously, as it has been
the major provider of growth in the last two decades. The World’s GDP growth is now
dependent in China. China contributes almost a quarter of the World’s GDP growth. So far,
India’s growth has a little bearing or has derived little benefits from it. The speaker says we have
lived in an insular world. When 2008 took place we kept saying we are insulated against external
crisis. India and China now exists in the different orbits of the World’s economy.
An important point to remember as stated by the speaker: A slowdown China now growing at
five percent still adds seven hundred billions to World GDP whereas much slowdown India at
five percent adds only 150 billion. This is what makes China apart not the size of GDP but how
much of a growth does it contribute. This is how we realize the importance of China to the
World. Even in the year of decline in 2008, it was still going steady and contributing to the
World growth.
A country should get their economy in order. A country should be a trading country and it should
be an exporting country. This is a lesson which India policy planner, politicians, bureaucrats has
to learn. You have to contribute to the World growth and you have to get a share of World’s
market.
The relationship between China and the other trading countries in the world, the speaker
provided a graph. China has trade surpluses with the European Union $144 US – $202 billion
dollars, Hong Kong 252 Billion dollar, ASEAN is minus 22, Japan -46, South Korea -97, Brazil
20. It has a trade deficit with Taiwan and Russia. The speaker gave an example of how Trump
embargo on China will not succeed. China is an aggregator of goods. In today’s intertwined
nature of the World’s economy, you cannot keep targeting a particular country. In this
interdependent world, you can do nothing about the trade surplus.
Regarding the trade with China, China’s export to India is different. If Chinese pharmaceuticals
and other basic amenities stops coming to India, our Pharmaceutical industry will stop. All the
electronic goods and devices are imported from China hence, we are dependent on China. Now
this recent COVID-19 issue is telling us how the economy is slowing down. If we want to treat
COVID-19, the basic chemical to treat this virus has to come from China. We have conceded
field after field to the Chinese. We are quiet dependent on them for our own economic well
being. The shutdown in Chinese products and centers and consequent slowdown in
manufacturing will have a huge impact on world economy. This will also have an effect on
tourism business in the US and the European countries. Chinese tourism is huge especially in the
US and Europe. Shutting down of airlines, manufacturing units and hotel industry will have its
effects on their economy.
Therefore, China is important to the World’s economy. Regarding the economy of India, India
needs investments. GDP investments ratio in India is 28.8% and China is 44%. As stated by the
speaker, what is needed is the short term investments. China’s short term investments has started
coming to India and now we can see Chinese cars moving around in India. China’s auto
investment in India is about 200 million. What we also need is the long term investments in
India. If you want to build a new infrastructure, new cities, highways all these requires huge
money and huge investments. These investments takes long gestation times and have long period
of return. China has the biggest sovereign fund in the world which means that the Chinese
government can decide about its investments. We need to get Chinese long term investments
which stays here for 30-40 years. India should also relook some of its foreign policy position.
The essential difference between the two countries is: Agriculture is still 15.4 percent in India,
Industry is 23 percent and service industry is 62 percent. The point is, when we have a large
services, it is regarded as post industrial profile. Here, India is becoming a post industrial society
without being industrialized. This is India’s deficit we have to be industrialized before becoming
a service industry. The speaker concluded his presentation with the question “Can India ever
breathe easy” .
.
Vote of Thanks (Arup Raha, President CENERS-K)
Good relationship between China and India, the two biggest Asian nations is not only important
for the two countries but also for Asia and to the World. These countries have no option but to
develop a cordial relationship. It is time for the government to shun negative policies and
perceptions, avoid confrontations and conflicts and emphasize cordial relationships for the better
world.
Plenary Session 1
People’s Republic of China, India and the World
Session Chair: Lt. Gen. J.R. Mukherjee, VP (Ops), CENERS-K
PRC and the World – View from Eastern India : Dr. Jigme Yeshi Lama (Calcutta
University)
The countries in the west especially the USA has for long dominated and is still dominating
international politics. This domination is also seen to be an epistemic one as the discipline of
International Relations or global politics is seen to be dominated by the narrative of and
constructed by the west. This paper somewhat focuses on this pedagogic and epistemic
domination, where our textbooks or writings have been about the United States or has been
influenced by it. However, while the west still remains important, there is a strong need to
pedagogically tackle the “new kid on the block”; the People’s Republic of China. Since the
1980s, China has achieved a remarkable economic growth, which coupled with a rapidly
modernizing army and technological advancements has made China into a global superpower.
China is seen to be heralding an Asian Age as it will soon uproot the US and other western
powers becoming the most powerful country in the world. With its ascension, it is obvious that
the Chinese narrative will percolate the pedagogy of global politics and International Relations.
However, a query still arises whether this narrative is any different from the earlier and still
prevalent narrative designed and established by the West and especially the US.
How do we see China from Eastern India,
India’s policy of China is crafted in the centre. Pedagogical view of China is also much
concentrated in the centre.
Various institutes in India offering courses and papers that deals with China and larger
Asia which also emphasizes on teaching the language.
Much of the perspectives are lopsided as they are derived from a singular or homogenous
source that is the Center (New Delhi).
Even though the Center is the political center, it can be oblivious to the issues such as
India’s East and the North East which has direct contact with China
For China, Nepal is important because Nepal is a gateway to South Asia and it is also
important for its security and for its vested interest in the region of Tibet.
What is truly needed is the department of China which will focus on Mandarin and other
East Asian languages along with the academic aspiration of China from multiple
perspectives.
One of the modes of understanding India China relationship is through security. Security
and territoriality seems to be given much importance further more.
These aspects of China’s rise in the immediate neighbourhood of India is something that
academic institutions especially in eastern India should pursue as primarily it will affect
them sooner or later and secondly, academic institutions in the region have the human
resources in the form of people who have knowledge of the languages of Nepal as well as
Bhutan and thus can carry out a more holistic study. Hence, in conclusion, the paper
looks at China from East India especially from an epistemic and pedagogic perspective,
which entails the study, analysis and researching of China in regular academic as well as
think tank institutions in East and North East India as the rise of China and Beijing’s
policies towards Nepal, Bhutan and Tawang will have a direct bearing on the region.
10 Pillars of Cooperation for P2P/B2B linkages; Impact of Wuhan and Mallapuram
informal Summit – Dr Avijit Banerjee (Vishwa Bharati)
Cultural flows between the India and China has laid a solid foundation.
India has become a potential market.
Through various summits held between the two nations, the leaders have been acquainted
with each other which opened a new mechanism for high level meetings.
Promotions of cultural exchanges.
People to people ties, Cultural exchanges are the result of the Wuhan Summit.
Cooperation in fighting terrorism.
Cooperation is both beneficial as it contributes to peace and development.
Action in reducing the trade deficits
Mutual agreement on efficient and balanced regional comprehensive economic
partnership.
People to people contacts are becoming important for bilateral relationship.
Regional Structures – BRICS, SCO etc – Dr. A.J Majumdar (Jadavpur University)
Regional structures in the contemporary period are essentially becoming trans-regional.
He highlighted three sectors – Perspective, patterns and prospects
The kind of perspective, attitude that we adopt actually influences the decisions
When we look at India and China there are gaps in terms economic and military strength
but in International politics we find some kind of debate.
China alone cannot make it Asian centric.
Various countries in Asia have to come together to cooperate on mutual benefits and
coordinate on their actions at International platforms and compromise on certain
perspectives.
There is always a different types of projections, this should also depend on the attitude
one has at a particular point of time.
Institutionalization of meaningful cooperation is step towards this implemental changes
that we are trying to have in international system. Therefore, regional structures or trans-
regional structures becomes important.
From 2018 the relationship are in upswing and political foundation are conducing for
better commercial activities.
Issue based coalition is possible through structures and platforms that are beneficial.
Contingent realism where the relations are actually dependent on the contingency of
situations. Cooperation between India and China would be the manifestation of this
process.
Prospects of Conflicts Resolution- Prof. Dr. Harish C Mehta
Global crisis are interconnected and a particular one landmark event in global conflict
will certainly affect the others. Therefore, any agreement between India and China to
settle their border issue would have impact on or influence on varying degree to China’s
maritime disputes in the South China Sea and the East Sea.
Looking at the interconnected disputes where the primary hegemony act and the
performer is the aggressive state of China.
Negotiation breakdown on border war.
Views on South China Sea crisis.
Academics and policy makers must do game theory because at the end attaching of some
number and numerical gaming will help.
Special Address by Mr Manish Gupta – Honorable Member of Parliament Rajya Sabha
We in India are leaders in giving help to countries in need and stress.
China believes in engaging with countries in a much more larger scale.
Discussion in matter related to China’s influence in our neighbouring countries. Are we
losing the diplomatic ties which we have with our neighbours?
The economic strength of your country leverages your political
Economic planning and measures taken by the government to achieve predetermined
targets in the shortest possible time.
Each government has its own failures and successes.
India has come far away from the policy of non alignment.
Our trade with china has grown potentially.
Economic power dictates political policy. When we talk about cooperating with China we
also have to look inwards as to how to improve our economy.
Looking at all the factors economic development is the most important issue.
Neighbor first policy apart from a policy, it should be converted into a concrete actions so
that we are insulated from any economic or political transmissions in China.
Plenary Session II
India – People’s Republic of China- Bilateral Relations
Session Chair: Dr. Mohan Guruswamy, Head, Centre for Policy Alternatives
Water Management, Environmental Issues and Cooperation- Dr Jayanta Bandopadhyaya
(ORF)
China is globally significant. We still do not have much understanding of modern China.
Rapid economic growth and the issue of Chinese environmental Challenges.
Both India and China has to address the issues of environmental challenge in much more
serious quantitative way.
China consumes the highest percentage of coal. Coal consumed by China is almost equal
to the coal consumed by the rest of the world.
Pollution all fuelled by coal has caused pollution to the rivers and also the breakdown of
rivers.
China is the main contributor of GHG.
However, now China is also leading nation in addressing the environmental problems
which they have created themselves.
China is also the world largest investors of ecological rehabilitation. Invention and
encouragement of the use of electric car and solar install capacity.
China and India has to exchange knowledge on many fronts.
Exchange of Himalayan water system is very important. Climate change has to be
understood. On the issue of climate change Himalayan rivers and its outflows, China and
India has to really collaborate because climate change is not India specific or China
Specific.
Energy Cooperation will benefit both India and China- Mr. Ashok Dasgupta (Cener-K)
China is far ahead of us in every field.
Chinese marketing strategy marketing ways is incredible.
India needs to cooperate on areas where they can benefit.
Differences of energy consumption between India and China. International power
exchange will be beneficial.
Dr. B.K. Mishra. (Regional Cooperation)
Power will rise power will fall
The relation between India and China will define the world order. This gives rise to the
anxiety in the Western world.
History of India and China is not positive.
There is a clichéd that neighbouring countries are bound to compete.
Cooperation is not easy because they are not sensitive to the absolute gains than they are
sensitive to the relative gains.
Mention of BCIM economic corridor. BCIM initiative is not going anywhere because
India is sensitive India is going to gain from the initiative but not as much as what China
is going to gain.
Relative gain becomes much more imperative in areas of cooperation.
Inducing cooperation strategically where you decide the sectors that you are comfortable
and competent to engage the adversaries.
India should prepare to engage with Chinese economy in order to reap the maximum
benefit and improve its own economy. There are benefits of cooperation more than
benefit of conflicts.