CONCEPT NOTE 01 Mar 2021- CD- WEBINAR – 27TH MAR 2021 – Copy

CENERS – K

CONCEPT NOTE – WEBINAR TO BE HELD ON SATURDAY THE 27th  MAR 2021 

INDO-CHINA DIALOGUE POST PLA MISADVENTURES IN DOKLAM, LADAKH, SIKKIM, ETC; ALSO ANTI INDIAN ACTIVITIES BY CHINA IN PAKISTAN, NEPAL, BANGLADESH, MYANMAR, SRI LANKA, MALDIVES, ETCUNDER COVID19 PANDEMIC OVERHANG – THE WAY FORWARD FOR INDIA

The “Research Centre for East and North East Regional Studies – Kolkata (CENERS –K)”, a Kolkata based Think Tank consisting of Senior Retired Army, Navy and Airforce, IAS, IPS, IFSOfficers, Academics, Industrialists, Social Workers will conduct a Webinar on Google Meet on the above subject on 27 March 2021 from 1000 AM to 1PM . The following speakers will participate in the Webinar and would speak for 10 to 15 mins each on the above subject –

1. General S Roy Choudhury – former COAS, MP & Patron CENERS – K– opening remarks
2. ACM Arup Raha (Retd) – former CAS & Member Emeritus CENERS – K – Opening Address
3. Maj Gen ArunRoye(Retd) – Former GOC Bengal Area, Military Analyst and Vice President, CENERS-K – Moderator of the Discussions
4. MrBramhaChelani – Stategic Analyst, member of many high profile Think Tanks
5. Mr Srikanth Kondapalli- Professor in Chinese Studies Centre for East Asian Studies,JNU
6. MrShyam Sharan – Former Foreign Secretary 
7. Mr Harsh Poddar-Director ATO India Limited and MD of ARIS CAPITAL (Logistics , Transportation and Non Bank Finance Companies with business interests in China.)
8. Mr Mohan Guruswamy- Chairman of the Centre of Policy Initiatives and columnist.
9. AmbGautamBambawale- Ambassador of India to China from 2017 to 2018.
10. Admiral MM Chopra (Retd) – StategicAnalyst.
11. MrAmitkiran Deb – Former Chief Secretary, West Bengal and Member Governing Council of CENERS -K.
12. Lt Gen J R Mukherjee (Retd) – Military Analyst, Author, Columnist, former GOC XV Corps, former COS Eastern Command and President CENERS-K – Closing Address

All CENERS – K Members; serving officers as nominated by them; Bureaucrats from MOD, MEA & MHA, selected – retd offrs from all Services, academics and students/staff from Universities will be invited to attend. Aspects of detail to be covered –

• Indo – China relations since the annexation of Tibet by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) & its military wing the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) in 1950s have never been good. India has been very accommodative of China in meeting its aspirations, bordering on appeasement without reciprocation in any form or favour. Recognition of China’s authority over Tibet, thus regularising the forceful annexation, has eliminated the safety of the huge buffer state of Tibet between two great civilizations & rising Asian neighbours. The negative fall-out of the occupation of Tibet by China was the fleeing of revered Dalai Lama & many of his followers to India to escape persecution by an authoritarian & barbaric regime. The establishment of a Tibetan Government in Exile in Dharamshala & grant of asylum to the Tibetan religious head was perhaps the prime undeclared reason for the 1962 Indo-China Conflict, though India’s intransigence not to budge from the proclaimed McMohan and Johnson Lines as the final settlement to border issue was perceived to be the main cause.

 

• China’s actions have been hostile towards India for the last seven decades. Its surreptitious occupation of AkshaiChin; claims on Arunachal Pradesh; construction of CPEC through POK;constant support to Pakistan and Pakistan based terror groups against India and in the UNSC and clandestinely arming of Pakistan with strategic weapon technologies to stymie the growth of India as another ‘Pole’ in Asia; denial of India a berth on the UNSC; and the recent skirmishes in Doklam, Sikkim and in Eastern Ladakh/Ladakh indicate protracted hostility towards India both now and in the future.

 

• China has always been an enigma, a mystery to the world, secretive,scheming, ambitious & vindictive. They do not forget or forgive and bide for the appropriate time to strike at the perceived adversary based on a long term strategy.Their current aggressiveness can be deciphered  in terms of thinking steeped into ancient Chinese strategic wisdom, especially when the world is reeling under Wuhan virus pandemic, which is perceived by most people, as to gain rapid ascendancy as the number ‘UNO’ world power.

 

• Good relations between India & China, sharing a very long border in the Himalayas, the most treacherous terrain & climatic conditions, is not only important for themselves but entire Asia & the world. There is enough space for both countries to coexist & grow. Co-operation & competition is the way forward while confrontation & conflict would ruin the prospects of both nations & aspirations of an Asian century. Together they have to fight for the rights of developing nations and address their concerns at world forums.

 

• However, the environment has shaped up contrary to global expectations on China’s ascent. Its rise has turned out to be the problem & not the solution to world’s concerns because of its belligerence & aggressiveness in South China Sea, East China Sea, the LACin Ladakh/Eastern LAC; UP/Tibet, HP/Tibet border sectors; Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan, Arunachalto forcefully settle contested & legitimate territorial claims of other sovereigns.Disputes over the Chinese damming and thinking of diverting Ganga and Brahmaputra River waters in Tibet, have also complicated relations in spite of the surge in Sino Indian trade. China has also resorted to predatory & corrupt economic & trade practices alienating many nations.The CCP is in an overdrive to reach the superpower status in a hurry displaying disdain for international rules, regulations, and conventions on dispute settlements despite China being a Veto wielding permanent member of UNSC.

 

Many reasons have been highlighted by strategic analysts for the Chinese belligerence, behaving like a bully & hegemon. These are:-

 

• China’s reputation is at stake as an emerging superpower because of Wuhan virus pandemic. In fact China is being accused of purposely spreading the virus to gainworld supremacy and have taken advantage of India during this pandemic period. There is unprecedented angst in the world against China’s culpability for destroying the world economy& livelihood of people.

 

• China’s economy is suffering because of intensification of trade war &sanctions by the US on several grounds.

 

• China’s prestigious BRI project aimed at enhancing its strategic footprint is facing strong headwinds due to economic dislocation & distrust of China. India’s rapid infrastructure developmentin border areas/LAC, its abrogation of Article 370, 35A and aggressive statements by her Home Minister to retake Aksai Chin and POK/NAs are considered to be threats to the Chinese CPEC, Highway 219 to Singkiang and Chinese economic interests in the region are being perceived as reasons for Chinese actions.

 

• The entire world is trying to plug the vulnerability of their over dependence on China 

                  for goods &  services

 

• The above issues have been further compounded by a perception that India is joining 

hands with the US, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Philipines and South East Asia in a perceived strategic alliance against China – this perception started with the Indo – US Nuclear deal and strategic partnership. The issue of India now looking East, now being part of the ‘Quad’ to police the South China Sea and becoming a trade and scarce natural resources competitor, have added fuel to the fire and according to some Chinese commentators made it necessary to “Teach India a Lesson”

 

• Chinese realisation of their growing confidence, internationally enhanced position, 

economic and military strength and that the balance of power is shifting from the West to the East is also a recent phenomenon which has given the Chinese added belligerency and assertiveness.

     

Therefore, the attack on the Indian troops at Galwan Valley, Sikkim and elsewhere as well as hard military, economic & diplomatic posturing against several nations simultaneously is an orchestration aimed at diverting the attention of its own people and arousing nationalistic fervour to prop up the invincibility of CCP & its Chairman Xi Jingping when China remains isolated in the world. However, the pandemic has rapidly changed the world’s strategic outlook. Military & economic alliances & co-operation are taking shape to counter the Chinese aggressiveness in the region. The whole world is looking up to India to stand up to Chinese belligerence.It is both a challenge & an opportunity to change the past unpleasant narrative of Indo-China relations.

Much water has flown down the Galwan River since the bloody skirmish on 15 June 2020, when the belligerence of the PLA perfidy was matched by the grit & resolve of the Indian Army & the Government to stare down the adversary. Rapid deployment of the Army & the Air Force to meet the emerging threat of a conflict check-mated the PLA’s plans of aggression in Ladakh.

The Chinese have been forced to retreat in part of Eastern Ladakh, after an audacious military response by the Indian Army & several rounds of high level talks. There has been a thaw in the frozen relations; more rounds of talks by military commanders in future may pave the way for resolving ingress in other areas and ensuring tranquility along the entire LAC. Of course, the final agreement on settlement of the border issue may take much longer & an honest concerted effort from both sides would be essential.

The breach of several border agreements, political, diplomatic & military orchestration against India’s security concerns & interests have reached a peak, forcing India to take a strong stand against China, disregarding its rapid rise as an economic & military power in the world.

China’s belligerence in the SCS/ECS against small & militarily weak neighbours in the contested & disputed international waters; maltreatment of its ethnic population and attempts at ethnic cleansing in Xinjiang & Tibet; suppression of democratic protests in HongKong; threatening military postures against Taiwan – have unsettled the world’s security environment. The world has realised that the rise of China as a superpower would not be peaceful. Concerted efforts are required by the free world to contain Chinese aggression.

The situation has been aggravated by the nationalistic & military jingoism of Communist Party of China & PLA, the military arm of CPC. A superpower to be, with a closed society & an authoritarian state with no freedoms to its citizens would have disastrous consequences for the free & democratic world as well. China would exercise great influence over nations through its coercive economic & military might in the future.

The fallout of Chinese belligerence & Wuhan virus pandemic are highlighted in the next few paragraphs.

• The vulnerability of nations in  over-dependence on China, leveraging its power of manipulation as the de facto production hub of the world, since everything has been outsourced to China – from raw materials to finished products needs redressal.
• The US is rapidly losing its economic, technological & military edge over China since the Chinese have made long strides to outgrow the US & be the premier world power. The US policy of ‘America first’ & getting into a ‘cocoon’ , shunning its traditional economic & military oversight across the globe is being reviewed by the Biden administration to re-engage the world , leaving less space for China to dominate like a bully.
• Developed & developing nations are seeking relief from over-dependence on China by establishing alternative sources of production & supply of commodities.
• The world is blocking entry of  IT/Cyber related enterprises & financial investments from China because of the huge mistrust of anything Chinese, fearful of their manipulative ways.
• Coalescence of nations affected by Chinese belligerence into formal & informal military alliances or partnerships to blunt the Chinese threat, like the QUAD in Asia-Pacific region are shaping up.
• Enhanced international concern & support to Uighur Muslims, Tibetans &Hong Kong citizens to end atrocities against them by the CPC & PLA is growing louder.

However, as far as India & China relations are concerned, we are not only powerful neighbours but are the two most populous nations, accounting for 1/3rd of humanity.  The world can never progress if these two nations remain adversaries,sharing a long border in the most difficult terrain & climatic conditions in the globe. Though China is well ahead in making rapid progress in economic & military terms, but it should not underestimate India’s ability to catch up & be counted as one of the top powerful nations.

The fact remains that despite the negative aspects of Chinese government, China’s economy is deeply intertwined with the rest of the world. It would be impossible to discard China’s contribution to world economy.  Its economic heft is enormous, which cannot be ignored. In fact notwithstanding all the above issue China still remains India’s largest trading partner.

Similarly, China would be at risk if it ignores the potential of India as a civilizational power, huge population, market & skilled human resource. It is destined to achieve greatness sooner than later. There is enough space for both nations to grow & play their roles in making the world a better place. Expansionism & the Middle Kingdom attitude of China would be detrimental for world peace & Chinese interests in the long run.

Some of the issues which require deliberations as a way forward for enhanced India-China relations are reflected in subsequent paras.

• How can the trust in China be recreated /re-established?
• What is the probability of a large scale conflict or a major border skirmish with China? Do we expect a change in the behaviour of PLA/CPC along the LAC?
• How can the border issue be resolved? To prevent a conflict, deterrence is essential- hence how does India build its CNP, ie, economic & military power?
• Is co-operation in trade, commerce, economic activities desirable if PLA/CPC continues with their disdain towards India?
• Is India -China co-operation instead of conflict & confrontation possible? How can that be achieved?

• What is the likely contour of India- China relations for the next two decades?

All speakers are requested to confirm that they would participate in the said webinar and give out the subject of their presentations to Secretary CENERS – K Brig N S Mukherjee by7 March 2021. Further details will be communicated to all participants by the Secretary in due course.